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Morning Market Prep by Doug Campbell for Jan. 16, 2018

Stampede of Bulls

The 2018 Stampede of Bulls rages onward and upward.  They have been running so long, and so hard you would think their hearts would soon explode.  Any bear that predicted they would soon stop has perished under their pounding hooves.  If you long the market stay long the market until price action clues suggest profit taking has begun.  If you’re on the sidelines then for goodness sake don’t let the fear of missing out convince you to chase this late in the rally.  As profits grow in such a strong bull run, so does the pressure on traders holding positions.  No one wants to sell to soon yet we all know a roll-over cold begin at any time.  My only advice, don’t allow greed get in the way of taking profits.  Consider scaling out to reduce the pressure and prevent emotional decision making.

On the Calendar

Only one important report on the Tuesday Economic Calendar.  At 8:30 AM the Empire State Mfg. Survey is expected to remain very strong at a consensus of 18.6 vs. Decembers 18.0 reading.   After that we have three bond auctions and believe it or not, no fed speakers.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have 23 companies stepping up to report quarterly results today.  Among them are UNH and CSX which both report before today’s bell.

Action Plan

Just when you think this market couldn’t get any more bullish, it does.  With 3-200 point days already this year, I believe this might be the strongest start to a year in my 28 years of trading.  Once again all four of the major averages closed at record high levels on Friday reacting to strong bank earnings.  Personally, I think the market seems excessively exuberant.  However, this morning futures are a perfect example of why it’s unwise to bet against such a strong trend.

As I write this, the Dow Futures are pointing to an opening gap of more than 200 points.  Who could have imagined that just 7-trading days after breaking through 25,000 the market could open above 26.000?  Remarkable bullishness indeed!  With such a massive gap up to new market highs chasing an entry would obviously be unwise.  Stay with the trend but also remain laser-focused on price action.  Logic would suggest profit taking could begin at any time but don’t try to predict when that might occur.

Trade Wisely,

Doug